Iran's non-oil export base has dramatically expanded, led by petrochemicals, steel, and agricultural products — but analysts warn the gains mask deep structural vulnerabilities.
The International Monetary Fund has revised its forecast for the Iranian economy upward, citing resilience in domestic industry and expanded informal trade networks.
Year-on-year inflation has declined from a peak of over 50%, but persistently high food and housing costs continue to squeeze living standards.
Iran continues to lose engineers, doctors, and academics at one of the highest per-capita rates in the world, representing a long-term economic threat that official statistics understate.
The Iranian rial fell to its weakest level on record on the unofficial market, stoking public anxiety over purchasing power and prompting a rare acknowledgement of the problem from the central bank governor.
From exchanging saffron and pistachios for Chinese electronics to settling oil debts in construction materials, Iran has developed a sophisticated non-cash trade system that Western financial exclusion has only accelerated.
The Fund now projects 3.2% GDP growth for Iran in the current fiscal year, citing unexpected resilience in domestic manufacturing and expanding informal trade links with Central Asian neighbours.
